In our last blog post on Euro 2016, we revealed that our founder, Professor Michael Feindt has created an algorithm to predict the Euro 2016 outcome. The algorithm - based on the NeuroBayes algorithm that we use to help retailers make the best decisions - has been fed results of every single international game ever recorded. It then generated probabilities of each team’s chances at winning each game.
From here Professor Feindt found the probability of each country winning the whole tournament. It turns out that there’s 94 billion possible ways the tournament could play out, so Professor Feindt used the Monte Carlo method, which is a probability simulation often used in the Financial sector, to help figure out each team’s chances of lifting the trophy on 10th July.
If you want to keep it a surprise stop reading now.
As we mentioned last time, it is not possible to predict with 100% certainty who will win this year’s tournament as previous shocks, like Greece’s victory over Portugal in Euro 2004, have shown that results can sometimes be totally unpredictable.
However, the advanced machine learning algorithm predicted the overall winner to be France, who will enjoy a home advantage throughout the tournament and have a 34.1 per cent chance of winning the competition, sixteen years after their last triumph in 2000. This is more than double their closest rival for the championship title, Spain, who only have a 13.4 per cent probability of winning the competition in comparison.
The results show that the English team will get off to a strong start, with 56.7 per cent probability that it will finish top of its group and a 93.3 per cent probability of qualifying for the round of 16. Continuing their winning streak, the probability of England reaching the quarter finals is almost two thirds (62.7 per cent), while reaching the semifinals is 36.7 per cent. However, the chances of reaching the final falls to 21.2 per cent, leaving England with only an 11 per cent chance of winning the competition for the first time in history.
Throughout the European tournament Prof. Dr Feindt will be recalculating the probabilities based on results from each game played. We’ll keep you posted.