Who will win the European Championship 2016?

The Euro 2016 has 94 trillion possible outcomes. We've made some predictions based on algorithms and data science of who will win Euro 2016.

Euro 2016, EM2016, predictions, monte carlo

Euro 2016 is nearly upon us and here at Blue Yonder, we cannot wait. In fact, we mean it when we say we can’t wait, so we’ve used data science to predict the outcome.

We’ve fed data from all recorded international games in history into a football-predicting, machine learning algorithm created by our founder, Prof. Dr. Michael Feindt. This has allowed us to work out the probabilities for who will take the glory at the European Championship this summer.

By feeding the results from all recorded international games, the specially created machine learning algorithm has learned general statements about the winning probability of a team that has won or lost their previous matches. The algorithm then predicted the probabilities of each team qualifying from the group stages, through to predicting the winner of Euro 2016.

Of course, the fixtures for the group stages of the tournament have already been drawn, but there are 94 trillion possible ways the tournament could play out after this. We have therefore used the Monte Carlo method to simulate 1 million complete tournaments according to the team-to-team game probabilities, and the likelihood of each team winning, drawing or losing against their opposition.

The Monte Carlo simulation, or probability simulation, is a technique used traditionally in the Physics and the Financial sector to calculate and understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in financial, project management, cost, and other forecasting models.

It is not possible to predict with 100% certainty who will win this year’s tournament as previous shocks, like Greece’s victory in Euro 2004, have shown that results can sometimes be totally unpredictable. However, it is possible to make statements of probability.

You’ll have to wait until next week to find out who our machine learning algorithm has predicted will win, but in the meantime, let us know your thoughts on who will win Euro 2016.

Tweet us @BYAnalytics #EURO2016 #footiepredictions #predictiveapplications

Prof. Dr. Michael Feindt Prof. Dr. Michael Feindt

is the mind behind Blue Yonder. In the course of his many years of scientific research activity at CERN, he developed the NeuroBayes algorithm. Michael Feindt is a professor at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany, and a lecturer at the Data Science Academy.